History before It Happens
There have been many historical events which took the world by surprise: the fall of the Berlin Wall, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the results of the Brexit referendum, to name just a few. Looking back, however, the signs were there if only people had stopped to look.
In that vein, I would like to share my thoughts on the long-term outlook for the asbestos industry. I have used the adjectives “dying” and “moribund” to categorize the industry’s prospects on more than one occasion. An article uploaded to a Chinese language news portal on July 16, 2026 with the fairly innocuous headline – “Banned by more than 60 Western countries, China still uses it extensively” – prompted me to reassess the status quo.
According to asbestos trade data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), in 1980, output from asbestos mines in 22 countries equaled 4,811,942 tonnes/t; by 2023, production from mines in just four jurisdictions was 1,320,000. This was a reduction of over 70%. By 2023, global output fell to 960,000t or ~20% of the 1980 total. However you look at it, the industry is on a downward trajectory with former asbestos behemoths such as Australia (2003), Brazil (2017)1, Canada (2018), Cyprus (2005), India (2011), Italy (1992), South Africa (2008) and the US shutting down mining operations and others in Brazil, China, Kazakhstan and Russia just about holding on.
 Image by Rob Wise. |
Brazil
Operations at the Cana Brava mine, Brazil’s sole asbestos production facility, are under threat from litigation pending at the Supreme Court (STF) regarding the unconstitutionality of a Goiás State ban exempting asbestos producers in the State from the Supreme Court’s 2017 nationwide asbestos ban. It is not known when the STF will resume deliberations.
The mine is owned and operated by the Sociedade Anônima Mineração de Asbestos (SAMA), a subsidiary of the Brazilian construction and mining company Eternit S.A.
China
The author of the text referenced in paragraph one concluded that:
“I believe it won’t be long before more green and safe new materials enter our homes and lives, allowing this ancient ‘deadly fiber’ to completely exit the stage of history [in China].”2
There are certainly grounds for his optimism. China has been moving incrementally to protect its population from toxic exposures.3 Between 2013 and 2023, China’s asbestos production decreased from 420,000 tonnes/t a year to 200,000 (-52%) and consumption fell by 50% (from 570,000t to 284,000t). There can be no doubt that these reductions were a direct consequence of government actions banning the use of some asbestos fibers and implementing restrictions on others:
- 2003: China banned asbestos use in friction materials in the automotive industry;
- 2007: China’s Ministry of Health mandated new restrictions and guidelines in: Criterion for the Control and Prevention of Occupational Hazards in Asbestos Processing;
- 2008: China prohibited the use of asbestos in the building of infrastructure for the Beijing Olympics and the 2010 Asian Games;
- 2011: China banned the use of all types of asbestos, including chrysotile, as of June 1 in siding and wall construction materials under national standard GB50574-2010. Industry experts predict that the new code for the use of wall materials in buildings would decrease demand for asbestos-cement flat sheet products;
- 2012: China’s new “List of recommended substitutes for toxic and hazardous raw materials” was officially published on December 27 by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Asbestos was included in category 3, the most advanced class for which substitutes have been developed and are being used. In the document, asbestos was categorized as a toxic and hazardous substance which could be replaced by safer alternatives.4
Russia
According to media reports, the financial prospects of asbestos producers in Russia are far from rosy, with Russia’s biggest asbestos conglomerate – Orenburg Minerals – reporting a ~99% fall in net profits in 2025 – and Uralasbest, its second biggest, declining to pay dividends for 2025 in order to pay off the company’s 2025 annual net loss of 700.03 million rubles/ US $8.92m, compared to a 1.53 billion rubles/US $19.5m profit in 2024.5
Both companies are suffering from hostile economic conditions, logistical challenges and “highly restrictive operating conditions” as well as a global decline in asbestos demand. There has been talk of “balance sheet erosion,” “technical insolvency,” and “heavily constrained cash flows.”6 Due to their strategic importance as town-forming enterprises for Yasny, Orenburg and Asbest, Sverdlovsk, it is believed they receive financial as well as political support from Putin’s administration. Should there be a change in government priorities or even a change in the regime, that support could evaporate. This is not as far-fetched as it sounds. The results of an election in Quebec (2012) upended the fortunes of the entire Canadian asbestos industry.7
There has been a notable decline in Russian dominance over the regional asbestos dialogue as evinced by asbestos bans in former Soviet states including: Estonia (2001), Latvia (2001), Lithuania (2005), Moldova (2024) and Ukraine (2022); as per legislation adopted in Azerbaijan, asbestos use will be outlawed nationwide as of July 1, 2027.8 Given these bans, one can but wonder how stable markets for Russia’s asbestos exports are in other post-Soviet states.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is the world’s second largest asbestos producer, with an annual output of ~250,000 tonnes.9 More than 90% of Kazakh asbestos is destined for markets in Central and South Asia; it seems Kazakhs are happy to sell asbestos but not to use it themselves.10 The country’s only asbestos mine is owned and operated by Kostanay Minerals JSC.11 Kostanay’s majority shareholder is Yerkin Tatishev, one of Kazakhstan’s richest men and the founder and chairman of the Kusto Group, an international conglomerate with an estimated annual turnover of over $1.0 billion.12
While lauded at home, Tatishev and the Kusto Group have been under investigation since 2022 by US authorities for “alleged corruption and human rights abuses connected to Kazakhstan.”13 If the charges are upheld, actions could be taken against Tatishev and the Kusto Group which would disrupt “cross-border financial relationships significantly.” It is possible that the operations of Kostanay Minerals could also be disrupted.
The Kazakh Government has, in most cases, played second fiddle to Russia in promoting the interests of asbestos stakeholders on the global stage.14 After Russia invaded Ukraine, high-level Kazakh officials brought pressure to bear on the Ukraine Government over its plans to ban asbestos.15 Their efforts failed and on September 6, 2022 the Ukraine Parliament adopted legislation ending asbestos use.16
Should the planets align and conspire to silence the voice of Russian asbestosphiles,17 it seems unlikely that Kazakhstan, on its own and with fewer and fewer international allies, could effectively fill the breach. Let’s see…
July 23, 2026
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1 Under a contentious state-wide exemption, still being litigated by the Brazilian Supreme Court, asbestos production continues in Brazil; as asbestos use is banned nationwide, all the asbestos produced is exported.
2 Longjia, M. 被欧美60多个国家禁用 中国却仍在大量使用 [Banned by more than 60 Western countries, China still uses it extensively]. July 16, 2026.
https://info.51.ca/articles/1560276
3 Kazan-Allen, L. China’s Rejection of Asbestos: Official. May 19, 2020.
https://ibasecretariat.org/lka-blog16.php#a166
4 Kazan-Allen, L. Beijing, We Have a Problem! November 25, 2025.
https://www.ibasecretariat.org/lka-beijing-we-have-a-problem.php
5 Ураласбест покроет убыток 2025г за счет нераспределенной прибыли 2024 года [Uralasbest will cover the loss of 2025 at the expense of retained earnings in 2024]. April 27, 2026.
https://www.interfax-russia.ru/ural/news/uralasbest-pokroet-ubytok-2025g-za-schet-neraspredelennoy-pribyli-2024-goda
Kazan-Allen, L. Ongoing Crisis in Russian Asbestos Monotown? April 8, 2025.
https://www.ibasecretariat.org/lka-ongoing-crisis-in-russian-asbestos-monotown.php
6 Финансовое состояние АО КИЕМБАЕВСКИЙ ГОРНО-ОБОГАТИТЕЛЬНЫЙ КОМБИНАТ “ОРЕНБУРГСКИЕ МИНЕРАЛЫ” [Financial condition of JSC KIEMBAEVSKIYE MINING AND PROCESSING PLANT “ORENBURG MINERALS”]. Accessed July 20, 2026.
https://www.testfirm.ru/result/5618000027_ao-orenburgskie-mineraly
7 Kazan-Allen, L. Canada: No More Asbestos! September 16, 2012.
https://www.ibasecretariat.org/lka-canada-no-more-asbestos.php
8 Mirzazade, M. Azerbaijan officially bans asbestos circulation. February 20, 2026.
https://operativmm.az/index.php/en/post/azerbaijan-officially-bans-asbestos-circulation/67639
9 Kazakhstan: Asbestos. Accessed July 22, 2026.
https://toxinfree.global/en/country/kazakhstan
Ibid.
11 Kazan-Allen, L. The world is now waiting for Kazakhstani chrysotile. May 24, 2022.
https://www.ibasecretariat.org/lka-the-world-is-waiting-for-kazakhstani-chrysotile.php
12 Wikipedia. Yerkin Tatishev. Accessed July 21, 2026.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yerkin_Tatishev
Yerkin Tatishev, Kusto Group, and the OFAC Sanctions Case. July 8, 2026.
https://www.investigations.org/news/yerkin-tatishev-kusto-group-ofac-sanctions
13 Yerkin Tatishev, Kusto Group, and the OFAC Sanctions Case. July 8, 2026.
https://www.investigations.org/news/yerkin-tatishev-kusto-group-ofac-sanctions
14 For years, asbestos vested interests, initially led by Canada and then by Russia, blocked UN progress in regulating the global asbestos trade under the Rotterdam Convention, a multilateral environmental treaty. At the latest meeting of the Convention (2025), the Russian-led veto on listing chrysotile asbestos on Annexe III continued.
15 Kazan-Allen, L. The Fight for Ukraine Sovereignty over its Asbestos Policy. September 20, 2021.
https://ibasecretariat.org/lka-fight-for-ukraine-sovereignty-over-its-asbestos-policy.php
16 Kazan-Allen, L. Ukraine Bans Asbestos, Finally! September 9, 2022.
https://ibasecretariat.org/lka-ukraine-bans-asbestos-finally.php
17 I believe I first saw this word in a text written by UK historian Geoffrey Tweedale many moons ago; it was used to refer to people who love asbestos such as industry public relations spokespeople, asbestos company executives and the scientists they commission to produce research with findings supportive of propaganda arguing that asbestos can be used safely under controlled conditions.
